{"product_id":"book-i3tr","title":"Everything Is Predictable","description":"\u003cb\u003eA “fascinating, witty, and perspective-shifting” (Oliver Burkeman, \u003ci\u003eNew York Times\u003c\/i\u003e bestselling author) tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eThe Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAt its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in \u003ci\u003eEverything Is Predictable,\u003c\/i\u003e Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003eBut who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e“Witty, lively, and best of all, extremely nerdy” (Tim Harford, author of \u003ci\u003eThe Undercover Economist\u003c\/i\u003e), \u003ci\u003eEverything Is Predictable\u003c\/i\u003e is an entertaining and accessible illustration of how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.","brand":"Simon \u0026 Schuster Audio","offers":[{"title":"Audiobook","offer_id":49346490433840,"sku":"BDi3tr","price":24.99,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true},{"title":"Audio CD","offer_id":49346490466608,"sku":"10i3tr","price":39.99,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0879\/2784\/9264\/files\/i3tr-Square-cover.jpg?v=1773709717","url":"https:\/\/downpour.com\/products\/book-i3tr","provider":"Downpour","version":"1.0","type":"link"}